After two consecutive days of adjustments, oil prices rebounded again on Thursday. This rebound occurred during a critical phase of ceasefire negotiations that began on August 15. Reportedly, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas began in Doha on Thursday and are expected to last for several days. The White House stated that Thursday's focus was on the details of implementing the agreement, and they do not expect an agreement to be reached immediately. The talks are expected to continue the following day. Despite differences, both sides believe these issues can be overcome and are calling for a swift conclusion to the negotiations.
Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran might launch an attack with little warning, keeping markets highly alert to potential geopolitical conflicts. Latest reports say that Hamas will be absent from the Gaza ceasefire talks in Doha, Qatar, on the 15th, but may engage in dialogue with mediators afterward. Hamas stated that it hopes the mediators can bring a "sincere response" from Israel for communication.
Previously, Iran warned that only an agreement in this week's Gaza ceasefire talks could prevent Iran from direct retaliation against Israel. If the talks fail or Iran believes Israel is deliberately stalling, Iran, with its allies, will launch a direct attack. Iran had vowed a severe response to the killing of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran and attributed it to Israel. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in this incident. To bolster defense against Israel, the U.S. Navy has dispatched warships and submarines to the Middle East.
Currently, oil prices have entered a rebound phase in the short term. However, due to uncertainties in geopolitical factors, market funds remain cautious, with evident wait-and-see sentiment. The rebound in oil prices could be affected by unexpected events at any time, leading to significant volatility. Therefore, investors need to be particularly mindful of their timing in operations.
Daily Dynamics
WTI main crude oil futures rose by $1.18, or 1.53%, to $78.16 per barrel; Brent main crude oil futures increased by $1.28, or 1.6%, to $81.04 per barrel; INE crude oil futures rose by 1.12% to 575.8 yuan.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.44% to 103.05; the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased by 0.32% to 7.1374; the U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds fell by 0.56% to 113.02; the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose by 1.39% to 40563.06.
Recent News
National Bureau of Statistics Data: Accelerated Growth in Oil Production
In July, the crude oil output of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 17.9 million tons, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate 1 percentage point faster than in June. The daily average output was 577,000 tons. Meanwhile, crude oil imports were 42.34 million tons, down 3.1% year-on-year.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15 showed that the crude oil processing volume of Chinese refineries continued to decline in July, down 2.0% from June to 13.96 million barrels per day (approximately 59.06 million tons), the lowest level in 21 months, reflecting weak domestic demand. This throughput was down 6.1% year-on-year, marking the largest decline since August 2022, when the drop was 6.5%.
Natural gas production maintained stable growth. In July, the natural gas output of large-scale industrial enterprises was 20 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed by 1.7 percentage points from June; the daily average output was 650 million cubic meters. Natural gas imports were 10.86 million tons, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year.
Geopolitical Risks and Demand Concerns Intertwine, Uncertain Oil Price Trends
Nomura Securities economist Yuki Takashima pointed out that after the overselling in the oil market on Wednesday, the Asian market began to rebound. Analysts from ING stated that geopolitical risks still loom over the oil market, particularly the uncertainty surrounding possible Iranian reprisals against Israel, leading to active options trading as participants try to protect themselves from significant oil price fluctuations.
However, ANZ Bank analysts are concerned that the rise in oil inventories will trigger demand weakness. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels compared to the expected increase of 2.2 million barrels, marking the first rise in inventories since late June. Oanda Senior Market Analyst Edward Moya noted that the market's current focus is on U.S. July retail sales data. If the data falls short of expectations, it could lead to a short-term drop in oil prices. Overall, analysts have divergent views on the long-term trend of oil prices.
SEB: OPEC+ Unlikely to Increase Production in Q4
SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye stated in a report that current market fundamentals suggest that OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production in the fourth quarter as this could lead to a supply glut. Although OPEC+ planned to restore production by 543,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, it seems unlikely there is additional room to increase production. Fund managers' positions also indicate a bearish outlook for the market. The bank recommends buying Brent crude futures when the oil price is in the mid to low $70 per barrel range.
