US Tariff Policy Could Impact the Gold Market Landscape
A document from U.S. Customs and Border Protection dated July 31 has caught the attention of the global precious metals industry. The document shows that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars are now included in customs codes subject to tariffs, potentially altering the common expectation of tariff exemptions. If the policy is enacted, the cost of importing gold to the US will rise significantly and may temporarily disrupt the global gold market price structure.
Analysts point out that this adjustment concerns not only US import policy but also international trade flows and market pricing mechanisms. As an important safe-haven asset, gold price fluctuations could amplify market sentiments and affect related financial derivatives and investment portfolios.
Switzerland's Exports May Take a Hit
Switzerland, being the largest global center for gold refining and export, has substantial export volumes to the US. Data shows that in the second half of last year, Switzerland's gold exports to the US amounted to $61.5 billion. At the current US tariff rate of 39% on Swiss goods, the potential tariffs on this trade volume could reach $24 billion.
Representatives from the Swiss Precious Metals Industry Association warn that this policy change will directly impact the profit margins of Swiss gold exporters, potentially forcing some companies to reassess the feasibility of exporting to the US. In the short term, refineries may reduce shipment volumes or even halt exports to mitigate the risks posed by policy uncertainties.
Global Price and Supply Chain Impact
Gold prices have risen by 27% since the end of last year, briefly surpassing the historic high of $3,500 per ounce. The market generally believes that inflation expectations, tariff risks, and potential challenges to the US dollar's reserve currency status have collectively driven gold prices upward. Should the tariff policy be enacted, gold prices may rise further in the short term.
Industry experts note that one-kilogram gold bars are a standard trading specification on the New York futures market, representing a significant portion of Swiss gold exports to the US. If tariffs are imposed, the New York gold inventory and London market liquidity will face pressure, and cross-market arbitrage and physical delivery may be obstructed, leading to increased volatility in the global supply chain.
Industry Response and Future Outlook
There is widespread concern in the industry that the adjustment to customs code classification will disrupt the previous consensus on tariff exemptions for large gold bars. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's push for "reciprocal tariffs," this change may become a focal point for a new round of trade friction.
Some Swiss refineries have adopted a wait-and-see approach, suspending shipments to the US to assess policy directions. If the US ultimately confirms the implementation of tariff levies, companies might accelerate efforts to explore alternative markets in Asia and the Middle East to diversify export risks.
