- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile and drone attack on U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, in retaliation for previous U.S. military strikes on Iranian territory, significantly escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- According to official disclosures, Iran fired 12 ballistic missiles at the Azraq Air Base in Jordan. This base, a primary deployment site for U.S. Air Force F-35 and F-15 fighter jets, reportedly suffered damage to key facilities and numerous aircraft.
- Amid the worsening situation, Iran announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, causing severe turbulence in the international oil market. Brent and WTI crude futures prices surged by more than $2 per barrel.
Expansion of Military Conflict Triggers Regional Security Reassessment
According to bulletins from multiple Middle Eastern security agencies, the IRGC's strikes targeted approximately 18 significant U.S. military sites in the region. In addition to the Azraq base in Jordan, the attacks included Kuwait's Ali Al Salem and Ahmed Al Jaber bases, as well as Bahrain's Sheikh Isa base, home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet and Patriot missile defense systems. The Kuwaiti military has confirmed the activation of air defense systems to intercept hostile targets, with regional defense facing full mobilization. The U.S. State Department has issued an emergency security alert to citizens in Jordan.
Cycle of Retaliation Intensifies Great Power Rivalry Uncertainty
The immediate cause of this conflict is the escalating confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump previously confirmed that the U.S. military launched 49 Tomahawk cruise missiles targeting sites within Iran. Although the U.S. administration emphasizes its policy goal of seeking regional peace, it has instructed the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to carry out multiple rounds of defensive strikes. Analysts point out that the uncompromising stance of both the U.S. and Iran on core interests has led to a cycle of retaliatory conflict. If both sides fail to establish a crisis management mechanism in the short term, military standoffs in the region may become further normalized, potentially leading to larger-scale bloc confrontations.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Severely Impacts Supply Chain Expectations
As the most crucial chokepoint for global oil maritime trade, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has an immediate impact on supply chains. A significant portion of the world's daily oil supply must pass through this strait, and Iran's complete blockade decision has directly led to a sharp increase in the liquidity premium of energy supply, causing a short-term surge in international oil prices. If the blockade cannot be lifted in the short term, the capacity gap of alternative routes and rising insurance rates will increase the procurement costs for global oil-importing countries, while manufacturing companies and shipping giants will also face significantly higher operating costs.
Cross-Asset Liquidity Repricing Puts Pressure on Risk Assets
As the Middle East situation continues to deteriorate in the short to medium term, global asset allocation institutions are rapidly activating risk aversion mechanisms. In terms of currency markets and commodity linkages, the inflow of safe-haven funds is driving up the valuation of the U.S. dollar and spot gold. Conversely, if high energy prices trigger a rebound in core inflation indicators, the monetary policy pricing of major global central banks may be reassessed. Under the assumption of macroeconomic pressure, the risk premium on global assets will increase significantly, and if the conflict affects major oil-producing countries in the vicinity, market volatility will remain high.
