Bitcoin Faces Adjustment, Wall Street Institutions Lower Short-term Forecasts
After a new round of sharp corrections in the crypto asset market, several large financial institutions have begun reassessing Bitcoin's price trajectory. Despite recent weak performances leading to a downgrade in short-term targets, the long-term bullish sentiment in the industry remains unchanged. Institutions generally believe that this downturn resembles a phase of consolidation within a bull market cycle rather than a trend reversal.
In the past two months, Bitcoin has significantly retreated from its historical high, raising investor concerns about institutional momentum. The slowdown in ETF fund inflows and some companies ceasing to allocate Bitcoin on their balance sheets have prompted a market forecast adjustment.
Short-term Expectations Lowered, but Long-term Goals Remain Unchanged
StanChart and Bernstein, two Wall Street institutions that hold a positive stance on cryptocurrencies, have both downgraded their short-term price forecasts. StanChart has reduced its year-end 2026 target from $300,000 to $150,000 and has postponed the target of $500,000 to 2030. Bernstein, meanwhile, has canceled its peak forecast for this year and forecasts that Bitcoin will hover around $150,000 next year, with a medium-term potential to rise to $200,000.
Nonetheless, the long-term logic of both institutions remains consistent: the structural growth drivers of Bitcoin continue to strengthen, and the proportion of long-term funds held is steadily increasing.
Bernstein points out that although Bitcoin prices have adjusted significantly, the proportion of overall ETF fund outflows is extremely low, indicating that institutional investors' strategies are becoming more resilient, and market volatility no longer easily shakes long-term positions.
Corporate Purchasing Will Weakens, ETFs Become the Sole Major Demand Source
Institutional analysts believe that a key reason for this adjustment is the weakened demand at the corporate level. Previously, some companies viewed Bitcoin as a "strategic reserve asset," driving the market into a strong upward cycle. However, as valuations rise and accounting rules limit, this demand is fading.
After corporations disengage, ETF fund flows have become the main demand channel for Bitcoin. However, recent inflow momentum has significantly slowed, with the flagship fund led by BlackRock even experiencing notable redemptions. This change requires the market to demonstrate new patience with investor behavior.
Despite this, analysts generally believe that the current fund flows are merely cyclical cooling rather than a sustained withdrawal. As the market stabilizes again, ETFs are expected to attract institutional fund inflows back.
Changes in Institutional and Retail Position Structures Extend Bull Market Cycle
According to statistics from Bernstein, institutional holdings in spot Bitcoin ETFs have increased from 20% last year to 28%, while the proportion held by retail investors remains high. This indicates that the Bitcoin market is gradually transitioning from "speculation-driven" to "allocation-driven."
The increase in institutional participation is seen as an important sign of an extended bull market cycle, differing from the obvious four-year halving cycle of the past. This round of growth could manifest as smoother and more prolonged.
Analysts note that as decentralized assets gradually gain acceptance from mainstream institutional funds, their pricing logic will also mature gradually. While volatility still exists, the trend may become more stable.
Long-term Vision Unchanged, Million-dollar Forecasts Still Seen as Achievable
Several institutions emphasize that the short-term downgrades in this round do not imply a change in long-term logic. Multiple investment banks, including StanChart and Bernstein, still anticipate Bitcoin reaching $500,000 before 2030 and achieving the million-dollar level by 2033.
This long-term growth is driven by two deep forces:
Firstly, institutions gradually increasing strategic allocations of Bitcoin;
Secondly, the continuous strengthening of Bitcoin's functional positioning with the global trend toward asset hedging and digitization.
As trading activity picks up and the fund flow structure improves, Bitcoin may enter a new phase of growth.
